Big Bear Lake STR market report: the discount trap, measured
Big Bear Lake is Southern California’s mountain within reach: ski hills in winter, a lake all summer, and millions of potential guests two hours away. It is also, on our desk’s read, one of the most discount-pressured markets we track. The gap between what hosts list at and what guests actually pay here runs wide across every home size, and it shapes everything about how this market should be priced.
Figures: the UpRev revenue desk’s August 2026 pull, aggregated daily across the market’s competitive set, twelve complete months ending July 2026. Refreshed quarterly.
In the table below, compare the median asking price to the median price of nights that actually booked. Guests in this market routinely pay well under sticker, which tells you the sticker is wrong: hosts set aspirational rates, wait, then capitulate late. A listing that opens at the realistic number captures the booking window early; a listing that opens high joins the late-discount scramble with everyone else.
The market’s top quartile asks a striking premium over the median here, among the widest quartile spreads we track. Both facts together describe the same market: enormous variation in pricing skill, with the winners taking a disproportionate share.
Winter is the stronger season, peaking around the holidays and the ski weeks, while mid-spring is the deepest trough, after the snow, before the lake. The classic error is treating spring like a discount version of winter instead of a different market entirely: the guests, the trip purpose and the willingness to pay all change, and rates that merely shrink rather than reposition miss what spring demand there is.
The numbers
| Size | Peak occupancy | Trough occupancy | Weekend premium | Top-quartile ask vs median | Booked vs listed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BR | 55% (December 2025) | 27.9% (April 2026) | 22% | +36% | -11% |
| 2BR | 49.9% (December 2025) | 22.4% (April 2026) | 16% | +40% | -13% |
| 3BR | 46.5% (December 2025) | 17.5% (April 2026) | 15% | +44% | -16% |
| 4BR | 47.6% (December 2025) | 17% (April 2026) | 18% | +45% | -14% |
| 5BR | 49.7% (December 2025) | 23.8% (May 2026) | 22% | +37% | -12% |
| Month | Occupancy | Occupancy, year prior | 25th pct listed | Median listed | 75th pct listed | Median booked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 39.4% | 37.9% | $124 | $158 | $216 | $137 |
| September 2025 | 24.9% | 20.1% | $109 | $142 | $197 | $121 |
| October 2025 | 32.2% | 27.2% | $111 | $145 | $200 | $122 |
| November 2025 | 37.9% | 34.8% | $134 | $176 | $240 | $153 |
| December 2025 | 49.9% | 49.4% | $205 | $275 | $370 | $235 |
| January 2026 | 44.1% | 42.2% | $169 | $224 | $310 | $202 |
| February 2026 | 43.5% | 43.9% | $154 | $205 | $287 | $183 |
| March 2026 | 26.5% | 36% | $124 | $167 | $237 | $142 |
| April 2026 | 22.4% | 23.9% | $105 | $144 | $207 | $121 |
| May 2026 | 25.5% | 23.3% | $103 | $142 | $207 | $122 |
| June 2026 | 31.8% | 30% | $105 | $143 | $210 | $125 |
| July 2026 | 44.9% | 42.6% | $115 | $158 | $226 | $140 |
| Month | Occupancy | Occupancy, year prior | 25th pct listed | Median listed | 75th pct listed | Median booked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 36.4% | 35.3% | $167 | $218 | $313 | $188 |
| September 2025 | 19.3% | 17.5% | $146 | $189 | $276 | $158 |
| October 2025 | 25.7% | 21.4% | $147 | $191 | $273 | $151 |
| November 2025 | 33.4% | 30.7% | $182 | $243 | $336 | $198 |
| December 2025 | 46.5% | 46.9% | $303 | $408 | $552 | $338 |
| January 2026 | 41.1% | 39.4% | $249 | $338 | $471 | $295 |
| February 2026 | 39.3% | 41.2% | $225 | $311 | $433 | $273 |
| March 2026 | 21.7% | 31.5% | $171 | $237 | $344 | $199 |
| April 2026 | 17.5% | 20.6% | $138 | $192 | $300 | $158 |
| May 2026 | 20.6% | 19.1% | $134 | $190 | $298 | $152 |
| June 2026 | 28.5% | 28.5% | $140 | $202 | $312 | $169 |
| July 2026 | 43.2% | 42.5% | $161 | $230 | $343 | $203 |
What would these numbers look like on your portfolio?
A market report tells you the water level. A revenue map tells you where your listings sit in it: which are beating this market, which are funding it, and what the gap is worth. It is free, built from your own numbers, and yours to keep.